Managing International Relations
Chapter 6 of Secondary 3: Managing Peace and Security: Deterrence and Diplomacy
· Causes of Conflict between states
· Ways Singapore practices Deterrence
· Ways Singapore practices Diplomacy
Chapter 1 of Secondary 4: Managing Peace and Security: Regional and International Conflict
Case Study of Iraq-Kuwait Crisis 1990
· Causes of tension between Iraq and Kuwait
· Reasons Iraq decided to invade Kuwait
· Consequences/impact of the Iraq-Kuwait Conflict
Transnational Terrorism
· Consequences/impact of Transnational Terrorism
· Management of/solutions to Transnational Terrorism
Part 1: Causes of Conflict between States
Factor
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Explanation
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Ideological differences
Example: North and South Korea
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· National ideologies dictate the way nations are organised politically, socially and economically.
· When one nation tries to impose its ideology on other countries, this threatens the other nations’ belief systems and way of life.
· For example, from 1945 to 1990, communist and capitalist nations engaged in a variety of ongoing conflicts.
· One example would be the Korean War
· Communist North invaded the South in an effort to impose communism and caused fear in democratic states that communist nations wanted to dominate the world.
· NK on the other hand feared that SK that with American support, would spread capitalism to North Korea.
· Both sides fear that the one side will impose their ideology on the other side.
· Ideologies are deeply rooted in these nations and such differences are hard to reconcile.
· Even till today, communist NK continues to have conflict with the capitalist South Korea and the United States which it is technically still at war with as the nation feels that capitalism threatens its existence as a communist state.
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Competition over territory
Example: India and China over Aksai Chin and NEFA |
· Competition over disputed territory.
· Land valued for defence use and national pride.
· Land is a symbol of a nation’s independence and sovereignty
· A country may lay claim to land that does not belong to it currently.
· The loss of land = a loss of sovereignty No country will give away their land cheaply.
· Land at borders could be hard to prove who owns it due to old maps drawn up by colonial governments.
· Maps drawn unilaterally by one nation only.
· Land disputed is also at the border which is mountainous and hard to define as to where the border starts and where it ends.
· For example, when the British left India in 1947, they drew up a map of India without consulting China
· These mountainous border areas of Aksai Chin and the North Eastern Frontier Agency (NEFA) are disputed by India and China as India and china have different maps and the area is hard to define.
· In 1962, China and India fought a brief war over their disputed border areas. Till today, the border issue has yet to be resolved.
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Competition over scarce resources
Example: Competition over fishing areas between Britain and Iceland
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· Competition over scarce resources is a cause of conflict between nations
· Resources are valuable, scarce and finite.
· Resources have economic value – can be exported for profits/essential for economic survival.
· Resources are unequally distributed - Some countries have more and some have less.
· Sometimes ownership is disputed because it is unclear which country scarce resources belong to. Example the Rumalia oil field tussle between Iraq and Kuwait.
· Countries are unwilling to give in to a competing nation because of its value. For example, England and Iceland competed over fishing rights in Icelandic waters. Overfishing by England reduced fish stocks and affected Iceland’s fishing industry which was Iceland’s main industry.
· UN had to intervene.
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Weighing
· Greater cause of conflict between nations is what threatens a nation’s survival the most.
· Answer: Competition over scarce resources.
· Countries with different ideologies can still live in peace as in the case of Cuba and USA today.
· Competition of territory can also cause tension but at times this territory is not essential for the nation’s survival and so the urgency to win control of it is less essential as laying claim on scarce resources.
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Part 2: Diplomacy and Deterrence
A) The best way to conduct diplomacy
Factor
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Explanation
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Bilateral diplomacy
is beneficial and helps nations like Singapore succeed.
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· Singapore cultivates relations directly with another state
· Through bilateral ties with Japan, USA and Germany, Singapore acquired advanced technological skills and increased trade with these nations
· Boosted Singapore’s economy and helped Singapore to develop faster.
· Bilateral relations also promote political, economic and cultural ties between neighbouring countries
· This ensures economic progress and security benefits for both nations
· Good ties between neighbours create a stable and peaceful environment for economic growth.
· For example, Singapore develops good ties with Indonesia and Malaysia to ensure that the South East Asian has peace for economic growth.
· Bilateral relations also give nations the opportunity to help a friendly neighbour in need.
· After the Asian Tsunami in 2004, Singapore sent humanitarian aid to Indonesia and Thailand.
· Such actions earned Singapore goodwill, respect and trust of its neighbours
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Regional
Diplomacy is beneficial and helps nations like Singapore succeed.
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· Singapore works with nations in the region as a group via ASEAN
Regional Groupings like ASEAN benefit its members in 3 ways:
(1) Be a platform to resolve differences peacefully between nations ASEAN through the ASEAN regional forum.
· ASEAN in the 1960s, South East Asia was unstable with many economic, political and security challenges.
· ASEAN Regional Forum allows differences to be discussed peacefully rather than to resort to war.
· With stability, there can be economic progress in the region that benefits Singapore.
(2) Singapore gains from the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement
· It helps Singapore companies and ASEAN companies buy and sell within ASEAN without paying taxes – this will raise trade between ASEAN nations
· Increases economic growth.
(3) Singapore also can negotiate more effectively with larger nations like Russia or India as part of ASEAN
· ASEAN has more political weight and clout.
· These nations are more willing to negotiate with a strong regional grouping like ASEAN than just small states like Singapore.
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International
Diplomacy is beneficial and helps nations like Singapore succeed.
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Singapore can plug into the world’s network of nations for resources and help.
· For instance, in the 1960s, Singapore gained access to help from international experts from the UN.
· Example: UN sent economic experts such as Dr. Albert Winsemius to help Singapore in its economic planning and industrialisation.
Through international diplomacy, nations like Singapore can also influence world affairs and decisions and play a useful role in the world.
· Example 1: Singapore played a major part in the UN Law of the Sea Conference to decide on the laws that govern territorial rights of a country over its waters.
· Example 2: Singapore served as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council from 2001 to 2002.
· Example 3: Singapore has been involved in UN Peacekeeping missions since 1989 and by 2005 Singapore had been involved in over 13 peacekeeping operations in 11 countries involving 1500 personnel.
· Singapore viewed as a valuable member of the world community.
· Singapore played key roles in maintaining international peace and security
· Enhanced Singapore’s status as a nation that contributes to improving the world and earned the world’s good will.
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Weighing
· Best way to conduct diplomacy is through developing good bilateral ties.
· Bilateral ties are the building-block of all good regional and international relations.
· If a nation has constant quarrels with its different nations, the regional and international community may not wish to offer such a nation help in times of need.
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B) What is the best way for Singapore to carry out deterrence?
Factor
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Explanation
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3G Army
Or 3rd Generation Armed Forces
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· The 3G armed forces uses technology to maximise the defensive capabilities of the Singapore Armed Forces
· Soldiers can fight decisively and respond flexibly in war.
· For example, the 3G armed forces, uses information technology to allow it to strike at the enemy more accurately as the SAF can see beyond the horizon using satellite technology.
· Surveillance and strike systems of the Air Force, Army and Navy are better integrated to allow them to strike at the enemy more swiftly, at a distance, and in coordination.
· SAF soldiers are also better equipped and protected to increase their survival rate
· SAF soldiers harder to kill and more of a threat to the enemy forces. For instance, the 3G army soldier wears body armour, an improved ballistic helmet and even has the ability to shoot around corners.
· The potential enemy will think twice before attacking Singapore as they may suffer considerable losses given Singapore’s superior technology.
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National Service armed forces – Citizen army
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· A citizen army through National Service allows Singapore to have enough soldiers to defend the country. i.e. Singapore had over 350,000 soldiers in 2005.
· A large professional army is too costly for Singapore.
· Hence, a well-trained citizen army is a good way to deter aggressors.
· Our citizen soldiers are fit and well-skilled. They undergo 2 years of Full-time Training in National Service and up to 10 years of reservist training up to a maximum of 40 days a year.
· Furthermore, National Service increase patriotism and all men have a common goal of defending Singapore.
· Our large and well-trained citizen army makes it harder for an enemy to defeat Singapore and thus this deters an enemy from attacking Singapore.
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Coordination between agencies
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· Multi-agency coordination includes the setting up of the National Security Coordination Secretariat (NSCS) to coordinate the work of the various government agencies, namely, the Ministry of Defence, the Ministry of Home Affairs and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
· The NSCS also works together with commercial and private parties to combat any major terror threats by sharing information and resources.
· Such close cooperation allows these security forces to pre-empt any terror attack or attack from another nation and stop it before it happens.
· Since the chance of successfully attacking Singapore is low, as their attempts to attack Singapore will be uncovered, the enemy will abandon its plans and thus deterrence has succeed.
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Working with other nations’ militaries – overseas exercises
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· Multi-lateral defence agreements between Singapore and other nations like the Five Power Defence Arrangement (FPDA) consisting of Singapore, Malaysia, United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand helps Singapore deter aggressors.
· Enemies will face the armed forces of all the other nations should it attack Singapore.
· Makes it harder for the enemy to win and increases the cost of attacking Singapore.
· Bilateral military agreements like these between Singapore and India and Singapore and Australia allows Singapore troops to sharpen their military skills in realistic and challenging training areas that cannot be offered in Singapore.
· This raises the SAF’s operational readiness and makes Singapore more ready to defeat any aggressor and so this deters an enemy from attacking.
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Local defence industry
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· Singapore has companies that can build military equipment that is suitable to our needs and climate.
· It also means the SAF has a source of weapons and can produce as many at will.
· Defence research by Singapore creates more cost-effective modern technology that lowers the operating cost and survival rate of weapons systems while enhancing the SAF’s ability to fight. E.g. DSTA upgrades our weapons systems to enhance their use and Singapore now builds its own armoured fighting vehicles and howitzers that are used by the SAF.
· Singapore is self-reliant in weapons and ammunition. We need not depend on other nations to supply us our weapons
· Our ability to defend ourselves could be affected if the foreign nations stopped selling us arms. This would impact our ability to defend Singapore but by being self-reliant, Singapore. Hence, being self-sufficient is important by having our own companies that can build weapons.
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Total Defence
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· Total defence is a concept where all Singaporeans can defend the nation
· Total defence covers military, social, psychological and civil economic defence
· Singapore has the economic power, psychological strength and civil defence know-how and social bonds amongst its citizens to face threats from external parties and weather a crisis.
· Enemies will find it harder to defeat Singapore because the entire population is behind the armed forces and has the skill and resilience to overcome an enemy attack.
· The enemy will face an entire nation and not just the SAF.
· For example: In psychological defence, the population is resilient and less likely to give-in in to threats. When foreign nations will think twice before attacking Singapore as it is harder to defeat Singapore.
· For example: In economic defence, the enemy is deterred because Singapore is economically strong and can financially upkeep their armed forces. There is full employment as Singaporeans go through re-training and the economy is resilient. With a strong economy, Singapore is more united and less likely to have internal strife that offers enemies the opportunity to weaken Singapore.
· For example: Civil Defence refers to the Singaporeans’ ability to save lives during an emergency and help bring chaos under control. This means that the damage caused by the enemy will be less severe. As Singaporeans know what to do in the event of an attack, the enemy cannot maximize casualties, and so is deterred.
· For example; Social Defence means that Singaporeans live in harmony. The enemy cannot pit one community against another. Foreign nations are less likely to try to divide Singaporeans as this strategy will fail and deterrence is achieved.
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Part 2: Iraq and Kuwait Conflict
A) Causes of the Iraq and Kuwait Crisis/
Reasons for tension
Reasons for tension
Factor
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Explanation
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Historical Relationship between Iraq and Kuwait
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· Kuwait was previously a province of Iraq.
· Split by the British who used to own both territories.
· Iraq felt Kuwait should be reunited with Iraq.
· Iraq had threatened to invade Kuwait in the 1970s.
· Shared the same culture, language, traditions and history.
· Poor relations occurred because Iraq believed Kuwait was part of it.
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Economic demise of Iraq
Poor economic state of Iraq
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· Iraq had a 10-year war with Iran.
· Iraq suffered serious damage
· Iraq borrowed money for war and owed nations e.g. France, Kuwait.
· Iraq desperate to repay loans and rebuild nation. i.e. Iraq needed $230 billion to rebuild and owed $80 billion
· Kuwait untouched by war and prosperous
· Iraq was jealous
· Iraq wanted Kuwait’s wealth and oil reserves to repay debts and rebuild.
· Control of Kuwait would give Iraq control of 20% of the world’s oil.
· Iraq could set higher oil prices and get more profits
· Iraq could solve its economic problems.
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Competition over territory – Bubiyan and Warbah / Territorial disputes
Oil is the economic life line of Iraq.
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Bubiyan and Warbah
· Bubiyan and Warbah islands were ceded to Kuwait by the British
· Iraq wanted control of these 2 islands for their strategically value
· These 2 islands guarded the entrance of Iraq’s only port Umm Qasr.
· Umm Qasr gave Iraq access to Persian Gulf to export their oil and earn money for rebuilding Iraq.
· Iraq had asked to lease Bubiyan and Warbah islands but was rebuffed by Kuwait.
· Without permanent control of Bubiyan & Warbah islands meant that Iraq would always live under the fear that Kuwait could block its only sea-route to export oil to secure its economic survival.
· The relationship between Iraq and Kuwait was strained.
Rumalia oil fields
· Iraq and Kuwait had a dispute over the Rumalia Oil Field which stood across the 2 nations’ borders.
· Tensions rose when Iraq accused Kuwait of slant drilling to steal oil from the Iraq’s side.
· Iraq demanded US2.4 billion compensation from Kuwait.
· Kuwait denied this and refused to compensate.
· Iraq was insulted and felt it could stop Kuwait by invading and taking the entire oil field.
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Overproduction of oil by Kuwait.
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· Kuwait produced large amounts of oil
· Did not keep to OPEC’s quota
· Drove down oil price
· Reduced Iraq’s earnings
· Oil was Iraq’s main export
· Iraq needs money from oil to repay debts and rebuild nation
· Iraq accused Kuwait of waging economic war on Iraq
· With Kuwait’s overproduction, oil price fell.
· A fall of oil price by US$1 meant a loss of $1b for Iraq.
· Iraq wanted Kuwait to restrict its oil production and keep to quotas to hold up oil prices.
· Kuwait refused despite OPEC’s call to do so.
· Iraq decided to invade Kuwait to stop it from flooding the market with pil that drove down prices.
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b) Why did Iraq finally decide to invade Kuwait?
2a) Explain how misreading of US position made Iraq decide
to invade Kuwait.[5]
2b) Explain 2 other reasons why Iraq decided to invade Kuwait.
Which was the key reason? Explain. [10]
Which was the key reason? Explain. [10]
Factor
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Explanation
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Misreading of US position
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· Iraq did not want a military confrontation with the US
· Iraq believed US , which was a world superpower, would not interfere
· This belief made Iraq consider invading Kuwait.
· Without the US intervening, Iraq was emboldened to invade Kuwait which was militarily weaker.
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Saddam’s leadership style /Saddam saw himself as the leader of the Arab world.
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· Saddam’s leadership style and ambition led to the invasion of Kuwait.
· Saddam was a Sunni Muslim and believed he was a leader of the Sunni Muslims.
· Saddam wanted to be the Arab world’s rightful leader
· Invading Kuwait would frighten other Arab states and show them his might.
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War served as a distraction to the Iraqi military and the public from Iraq’s economic problems
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· Saddam feared a possible revolution by the armed forces and Shiite Muslims in Iraq if Iraq did not fix its problems(economic)
· He decided to keep the armed forces busy with war.
· An invasion of Kuwait would distract the armed forces and citizens from Iraq’s problems
· Reduced the likelihood of a revolution against him.
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Iraq’s official reason
(Propaganda) |
· Iraq claimed that Kuwait’s revolutionaries had asked Iraq to free Kuwait from its ruling government.
· Iraq was simply invading Kuwait at the invitation of these Kuwaiti rebels.
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c) Reaction of the world to the crisis
Factor
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Explanation
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Fear of Iraqi dominance by Arab states
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· Smaller Middle Eastern States feared they would be invaded like Kuwait and lose their independence
· Iraq was a very powerful nation in the region.
· Nations in the region were concerned that any action that displeased Iraq may lead to an invasion.
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Failure of the diplomatic efforts.
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· Attempts to solve the crisis by diplomacy failed.
· Diplomacy was used through negotiations with Kuwait supported by OPEC(Organisation of petroleum exporting countries) and the Arab League.
OPEC negotiations
· The OPEC negotiations were more successful in appeasing Iraq and reduced tensions
· Kuwait agreed to raise oil price and Kuwait agreed to lower oil production within OPEC limits.
Arab League negotiations
· Kuwait’s negotiations with Iraq through the Arab League failed.
· In the negotiations on 1 August 1990, Kuwait, with the support the Arab League, agreed to discuss the war debt Iraq owed it but Kuwait refused to pay the compensation for the oil that Iraq accused Kuwait of stealing through slant drilling or to give up any territory. E.g. Bubiyan and Warbah or the Rumaila Oil Field.
· The failed negotiations made Iraq decide to abandon the planned 4th August meeting with Kuwait and instead invade on 2nd August 1990.
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Economic Sanctions against Iraq by UN
*After the Invasion, UN and USA formed a coalition army to drive Iraqi troops out of Kuwait.
(Operation Desert Storm)
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· UN imposed economic sanctions against Iraq to force it to negotiate rather than invade Kuwait
· Iraq was unable to gain access to foreign medical supplies and other essential goods.
· This could have forced Iraq into a corner and made invasion as attractive option.
· However, it was Iraq’s overall desperate economic situation that made Iraq choose invasion.
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d) Consequences of the Iraq and Kuwait Conflict
Factor
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Explanation in point form
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Impact on Kuwait
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Country’s infrastructure destroyed
· Oil wells and public works destroyed by Iraqi troops.
· 600 of Kuwait’s 950 oil wells set on fire by Iraq
· $25 billion of damages
Suffering and loss of lives
· Over 1000 Kuwaitis killed
· Others were arrested, tortured by Iraqi troops
· Kuwaitis treated harshly and forced to leave
Nation looted
· Museums looted: Heritage items stolen or damaged.
· Homes taken over by as Iraqi troops and looted
· Shops and Hospitals: Medical equipment, medicine and goods stolen.
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Impact on Iraq
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Destruction of Iraqi military capability (Sub-factor 1)
· Before the Gulf War, Iraq was one of the most powerful and feared nations in the Middle East.
· By end of the war, a third(33%) of Iraq’s 1 million strong army was destroyed.
· Power vacuum was created in the region, as Iraq was a not as powerful to counter-balance against the larger Arab states like Syria and Iran
· This was potentially destabilizing.
· Many Iraqi soldiers died because of the superior technology of the US-led forces and their bombing of Iraqi troops.
· Example: Thousands of Iraq troops were killed as they fled Kuwait along the Highway of Death.
Political instability in Iraq (Sub-factor 2)
· Kurds were the minority in Iraq
· They wanted an independent state from Iraq.
· Kurds, encouraged by the US led coalition and Saddam’s defeat, started a revolution against Saddam
· They believed the US would help them overthrow Saddam
· There was no military support from the US-led Coalition
· Saddam dealt with the uprising brutally and killed thousands
· Drove 1 million Kurds became refugees and were driven out of Iraq.
· UN condemned Saddam’s actions and peacekeepers were sent to Northern Iraq to protect the Kurds.
Suffering of Iraqis
· Iraq was destroyed in war
· US had bombed the Iraq’s cities and public works
· Damaged Iraq and its ability to provide basic necessities like sanitation and water
· People in Iraq suffered from this.
· Launch of military attack to free Kuwait of Iraqi control – Operation desert storm
· An international coalition was formed to eject Iraq out of Kuwait.
· Much of Iraq was destroyed during this war and many Iraqis were killed in the bombing of Iraq to force Iraq to leave Kuwait.
· Bombing of Iraq by the coalition forces led to the destruction of the infrastructure of the country. Sewage system damaged leading to spread of diseases. Water resources polluted leading to more illness spreading that are water-borne – sickness and death of its citizens.
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Regional and international impact
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Regional Impact on Environment
· Iraq burnt oil well (Air pollution) and pour oil(Water pollution) into the Persian Gulf
· Polluted the air leads to haze and water filled with oil slicks
· Wild-life/marine life killed by pollution e.g. Birds and fishes
· Loss of natural heritage
· Negative impact on fishery business
· Polluted air endangers health e.g. lung disease increase
· Tourists and business travellers avoid the region
· Loss of business and tourism dollars
· Unemployment rises
International Impact
· Many of the foreign workers who worked in Kuwait also left the country
· Lost their jobs and source of income
· Affected their families back home.
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Part 4: Transnational Terrorism
A) Impact/Consequences of transnational terrorism
Political Impact
· Loss of personal privacy
· Government conducts surveillance activities on public
· Attempt to track terrorists
· Loss of trust between people and their government
· Increased security at points of entry
· Citizens may feel inconvenienced
· Citizens’ personal data and activities like phone calls may also be tapped
· Innocent citizens may be arrested or subjected to arrest and questioning
· Increased inconvenience to citizens
· Fear and distrust of the government by the people
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Economic impact
Loss of life and property
· Many innocent people killed in terror attacks
· Insurance cost increase. Example: Over $40 billion loss by insurance companies after 9/11 attacks on New York
· Businesses affected e.g. airline industry decline and US government had to provide support
· Governments have to provide financial support to private companies like airlines
· Loss of jobs
· Economy declines
Tourism affected
· Example: Bali tourism affected after 2002 terror attack on Bali with 50% decline in tourists arrivals
· Economy declines and unemployment rises.
Governments spend more money to improve security.
· Increased security presence meant more funds spent on security measures. E.g. exercises to counter terrorism
· Public transport disrupted to ensure that citizens know what to do if there is a terror attack
· Example: 12 MRT stations closed for Exercise Northstar in Jan 2006 in Singapore.
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Social Impact
· Acts of terrorism by members of one community can increase suspicion and disharmony between communities
· Other communities may think that everyone in the community where the terrorist come from are terrorists by association.
· Distrust, fear and racial and religious tension arises due to this perception
· Example: After the arrest of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) members in Singapore, non-Malay-Muslims felt uncomfortable in the presence of Malay-Muslims since the JI members arrested were Malay Muslims.
· Malay-Muslims feel discriminated as they are viewed with suspicion by other communities
· Communities can prevent such strain by having programs that build social cohesion through inter racial and religious interaction e.g. Community Engagement program.
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B) Management of/Solutions to Transnational Terrorism
Nurturing an environment that censures terrorism
· Terrorist ideas are rejected by all members of society
· Firmly and unequivocally reject these ideas of hate and violence.
· Deny terrorists any space in society
· No chance for these ideas to take root in any society
· The world will collectively be rid of terrorists and their ideas
· Transnational terrorists cannot penetrated any nation
· Terrorists eventually weaken as no new members
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Regional Cooperation
· Nations at the regional level work together
· ASEAN Share information on terrorist movements
· Do not give terrorists a chance to remain in your country
· ASEAN nations pledged to cooperate against terrorists
· Terrorism poses a threat to the peace and prosperity of ASEAN and direct challenge of ASEAN’s achievements.
· Example: Singapore provided intelligence information with Philippines to arrest JI bomb maker Fathur Rohman Al-Ghozi in Jan 2002 who carried out an attack on the Philippines Light Rail System which killed 22 people. He was planning to bomb Singapore.
· Example: In Jan 2007, ASEAN passed laws to enforce cooperation between nations in SEA to combat terrorism.
· ASEAN have joint police work and intelligence sharing
· ASEAN convention on Counter-terrorism
· Region’s first legally binding anti-terrorism accord.
· Impact of measure: Terrorists have nowhere to hide and they can be easier to be arrested.
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International cooperation
· UN resolutions – freeze assets of terrorists, deny them travel and safe haven, prevent terrorist recruitment and weapons supply, cooperate the share information and criminal prosecution.
· Terrorists have nowhere to hide and no funds.
· UN monitors nations adherence to UN anti-terror laws using the CTC or Counter-terrorism committee
· UN Counter Terrorism centre aims to foster greater cooperation within UN to develop comprehensive database of counter terrorism best practices.
· Impact: $200 million frozen & through info sharing 4000 terrorists arrested.
· Not fully successful: Ability of terrorists to evade security restrictions & able to recruit new members using the internet
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